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There is almost no such thing as overpaying
for an elite QB, a franchise QB.
So the Green Bay Packers aren’t overpaying for Aaron Rodgers, giving him a four-year deal worth $200 million, including $153 million in guaranteed money.
The elite quarterbacks are like a rising tide that lifts all boats.
These elite quarterbacks, and there are only about a hand full of them, can keep things rolling, even when there are issues around them.
Oftentimes middling quarterbacks need everything around them to be perfect to succeed.
This past season, Rodgers was without his starting left tackle David Baktiari due to a knee issue, so they moved center Elgton Jenkins to left tackle, and then he suffered a season-ending knee injury. So they turned to raw Yosh Nijman, and then he got hurt, and they went with former Jets practice squad player Ben Braden. Nijman came back, but was inconsistent, so they moved right tackle Billy Turner to the left side. This team went 13-4 and was the #1 seed in the NFC. They lost in the divisional round because of awful special teams, but the mere fact that Rodgers got them to 13-4 with major problems left tackle, perhaps the most important position on his line, was impressive.
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, was playing behind one of the worst lines in football, and led his team to the Super Bowl.
That is why I call these handful of guys – “Rising Tide Quarterbacks.”
These are the kind of guys who deserve every dime they get, and there aren’t a lot of them. Especially now with Tom Brady retired.
Guys like Brady and Peyton Manning, they could take teams with myriad issues, and still lead them deep into the playoffs and sometimes into the Super Bowl.
That is why they are worth the money.
While guys like Rodgers are worth that kind of money, guys like Baker Mayfield aren’t. Mayfield is a system QB who needs a running game and strong defense to win. There are a lot of quarterbacks like that, and you can’t pay them $40-50 million a year. That is why the Cleveland Browns are kicking the can down the road, having Mayfield play on the fourth year of his rookie contract this year, and perhaps on the fifth-year option in 2023.
Is Zach Wilson a “Rising Tide QB?” It’s too early to tell. He didn’t show that as a rookie, but he was a rookie, and one that came out of school early. Maybe he will turn into one, we will see.
And the Jets are fortunate because they don’t have to deal with making a decision on his second contract for at least two more years. Those second contracts, as we saw with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, can be monstrous, but the money seems to be worth it with both.
The Dallas Cowboys gave Dak Prescott a similar deal to Mahomes and Allen, but he might be worth it. He’s a good QB, not a great one, and has trouble beating good teams.
So the point is, with a guy like Rodgers, who can still win with a fourth-string left tackle, he’s worth a record-breaking contract. There were many years the Packers record was much better than it would have been with almost any other QB, because there were personnel deficiencies, but Rodgers still made it work.
The Jets will find out in the next couple of seasons whether Wilson is worth one of these kinds of deals.
But only a select few quarterbacks are worth those market-setting deals, and those are the ones who can still lead teams to wins and successful seasons even with issues around them.
March 8, 2022
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